USD/INR technical analysis: Bulls’ on progress on hold near 100-day MA

• USD/INR’s upside is being capped by key average.  
• Markets already priced in for two Fed rate cuts.  
• A break above 70.00 looks likely.

For USD/INR, the path of least resistance is on the higher side. However, the upside is being capped by the 50-day moving average (MA) this week.  

The currency pair witnessed a falling wedge breakout on June 13, opening the doors to a retest of May’s high of 70.78. The bullish move, however, seems to have stalled at the 100-day moving average resistance, currently at 69.93.  

Notably, the pair created a doji candle at the average hurdle on Monday, taking some shine off the wedge breakout confirmed last week. That said, the pattern is still valid and would further gain credence if the spot invalidates the doji candle with a close above 70.00 today.  

With 5- and 10- day MAs trending north and an impending bull cross between 5- and 50-day MAs, a break above 70.00 looks likely. It is worth noting that the markets are priced in for at least two Fed rate cuts this year. So, the pair is unlikely to see a big drop even if the Federal Reserve lays the groundwork for a rate cut later this year. The central bank’s rate decision is scheduled at 18:00 GMT on Wednesday.  

The escalating trade tensions between the US and India also favor further upside in USD/INR.  

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Pivot points