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The bearish view put forward by the range breakdown on Friday has been reinforced with today’s 0.12 percent drop to 70.80.

Add to that, the descending 5- and 10-day moving averages (MAs) and the fading Indo-Pak tensions and the probability of a drop to the 200-day MA of 70.65 appears high.  

A close below that average would only bolster the bearish technical setup, opening doors to Feb. 13 low of 70.40.  

Daily chart

Trend: Bearish