USD/JPY: bulls advance with risk swept under the carpet, target 114.21 Nov high
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USD/JPY: bulls advance with risk swept under the carpet, target 114.21 Nov high

  • USD/JPY was capped through the 114 handle to 114.20 earlier this month and us n track for an additional test of the 114 handle should bulls keep up the momentum.  
  • USD/JPY will be a main focus in the FX space this week with a number of critical events taking place on the calendar.  

The risk tone was mixed in markets but generally improved with European indices and US benchmarks all making headway. With risk, for now, swept under the carpet, USD/JPY can continue higher as investors cheer progress from the Italians sounding somewhat more flexible with respect to their proposed budget deficit at loggerheads with the European Commission and EU rules.

At the same time, we are one step closer to some kind of an outcome with respect to Brexit ow that PM has got her EU counterparts to approve what she will now take to UK Parliament for the same sign-off – however, that in itself should be a weight on risk considering, at this stage, she has a huge uphill battle considering how many MPs have already voiced their disapproval of what she is about to try and push through the Commons in December.  

Sino/US disorder in view and critical

The immediate focus, now, is the G20 summit. However, things will only really start to get interesting when U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are slated to meet at the Nov. 30-Dec. 1 as trade tensions rage. The summit has been long awaited and s too has a truce in the Sino/US trade war disorder, but, even still, the expectations for a trade war ceasefire are low while a trade agreement between U.S. and China is essential for stock markets, risk in general and the yen which plays out its safe haven role at such times and under such circumstances.  

USD/JPY levels

For now, the USD/JPY has been forced up by risk-on flow towards the November 16’s 113.62 high having just met that mark in Tokyo. The pair attracted good demand above the cloud top and Kijun, a favourite technical line in the sand for Japanese traders. Bulls can target the 114.21 Nov high ahead of a more daunting level as being the 161.8% Fibo from the November base at 114.78.  On the downside, failure at the 112.16 lower cloud support would target the 110.15/109.77 200 day moving average and August low.

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