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Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY is consolidating very near term following its recent sell off to and reversal from the 104.55/10 January low and the 2013-2019 uptrend and this support is reinforced by the 200 month ma at 104.44 and this should act as a near term floor for the market.

Key Quotes

“It has now also eroded the 20 day ma and we would allow for further gains to the 107.21 18th July low. A recovery above here is needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure. This guards the 108.99/109.32 recent highs.”

“Failure at 104.10 would target 99.00 the 2016 low, but for now we would allow for consolidation and look for the market to hold at circa 104.50/10.”