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  • USD/JPY is tradng below the key 50-hour moving average support.  
  • US 10-year yield remains trapped in a ten basis point range.  
  • Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points snd retain easing bias.  

USD/JPY is trading below the 50-hour moving average (MA) in Asia amid sideways action in the US treasury yields.  

As of writing, the currency pair is trading at 108.55 and the 50-hour MA is located at 108.57. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note is trading largely unchanged on the day at 2.06%.  

Notably, the benchmark yield has been restricted to a narrow range of 2.00% to 2.10% since July 18.  

Fed to cut rates  

The US Federal Reserve (FED) is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points today. The markets have already priced in the move, so the rate cut won’t be a surprise.  

The US Dollar will take a beating if the Fed leaves the door open to another quarter point rate cut and two or more Fed voters favor more aggressive move. This is because the rebound in non-farm payrolls in June and a faster rise in retail sales convinced many that a preventive rate cut is all that is needed this year.  

The American Dollar may pick up a strong bid if the Fed remains noncommittal about further easing and sounds less dovish-than-expected. Analysts at ANZ expect the central bank to cut rates,  end its quantitative tightening program and retain its easing bias owing to elevated uncertainty and weak domestic inflation.  

Pivot levels