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The USD/JPY pair is expected to see a sustained move below 104.00 for a fall back to 103.05 and eventually 101.59/18, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team.

Key quotes

“USD/JPY strength has quickly faded and we continue to look for a clear and weekly closing break below the key 104.02/00 price pivot to confirm a more important downturn with support below 103.65 seen next at the early November low and potential trend support from late July at 103.20/05.”

“Whilst a fresh rebound from 103.20/05 should be allowed for, our bias remains for this to be removed in due course for a move to what we see as more important support at 101.59/18 – the March low for the year and further potential trend support – where we look for a better floor.” 

“Resistance is seen at 104.09 initially, then 104.22, with 104.57/63 ideally capping to keep the immediate risk lower. Above can see a recovery back to 105.13/16, but with fresh sellers expected here.”