With the turmoil in the global markets, what is the outlook for USD/JPY?
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:
NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains a structural bearish bias.
“Our bias for a lower USD/JPY remains in place and moves over the past fortnights have vindicated our view that JPY is still the preeminent safe-haven currency. After trading above ¥112, the pair was due for a correction and the move lower has now accelerated alongside a deterioration in the global growth outlook and a fall in both global equities and US Treasuries yields,” NAB notes.
“While the BoJ has run out of conventional policy ammunition, the Bank still has plenty of room to buy more EFTs and JREITs without breaching its ¥6trn and ¥90bn respective annual targets. At its meeting, we think the Bank will increase its ETF purchasing target alongside the introduction on new lending programs. If USD/JPY breaks below ¥100, then the risk of FX intervention increases and if the Fed slashes the funds rate by 50bps on March 18, then the BoJ may look to lower the deposit rate by 10bps to counter a dovish Fed,” NAB adds.
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