USD/JPY: FOMC and BoJ in focus – MUFG

Takahiro Sekido, currency analyst at MUFG Bank, explains they hold a neutral bias in the USD/JPY pair and see it trading in the 107.00/111.00 range next week.  

Key Quotes:

“The October FOMC & BoJ meetings will be key next week. USD/JPY has already priced in a rate cut by the FOMC to some degree, so would not react much to a cut. If the Fed does defer on cutting rates, then the initial reaction would likely be USD buying, but stock price weakness would likely cap a rise by USD/JPY.”

“The BoJ will maintain current monetary policy. BoJ Governor Kuroda commented in an interview that he expects a rate cut, so if the BoJ stands firm on policy, JPY may strengthen slightly but probably not continue. But if the BoJ does make some sort of policy change, JPY would initially weaken but not continue to do so because of concerns about side effects and continuity, and at some point USDJPY would lose steam. Ultimately Brexit continues to loom and there will likely be little sense of direction despite some volatility.”