USD/JPY Forecast Aug. 12-16 – Yen rally continues as 105 within striking distance.

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Dollar/yen posted a second straight week of sharp losses, as the pair fell close to 1.0% last week. Will the yen rally push the greenback below the symbolic 105 level? The U.S. data includes the service PMI and inflation data, but trade tensions and stocks will have a significant influence on the pair’s movement.

USD/JPY fundamental movers

U.S. equity markets had their worst one-day fall in 2019 on Monday, after China devalued its currency to a 10-year low against the dollar. The move prompted the U.S. to label China as a “currency manipulator”. China also retaliated against the U.S. pledge to hit Chinese products with a new 10% tariff, as Beijing said it would no longer purchase any U.S. agricultural products. The yen continued to attract safe-haven flows, and has jumped 2.8% since the end of July.

In the U.S., the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slowed to 53.7 in July, its lowest level in almost three years. This is indicative of weaker expansion in the services sector. The week wrapped up with inflation data, which remains at low levels. The producer price index was unchanged at 0.2%, matching the forecast. The core release declined by 0.2%, its first decline of the year.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

109.73 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since the end of May. 109.35 is close by.

108.70 follows.

108.10 was a swing low in late May. 107.30 follows. 

106.61 has some breathing room in resistance, following strong losses by USD/JPY last week.

105.55 was tested in support for the first time since January. It starts the week as a weak line.

104.65 is next.

The round number of 104 was a key line in May 2008.

102.50 is next.

101.20 has held in support since September 2016.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I remain bearish on USD/JPY

An escalation in tensions between the U.S. and China has sent the yen sharply higher in August. With neither side ready to blink, the crisis could continue, which could propel the safe-haven yen even higher.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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