USD/JPY Forecast Nov. 2-6 – BoJ stays pat, US election next

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Dollar/yen was almost unchanged last week. In the upcoming week, the focus will be on Japanese consumer releases. Analysts are braced for declines from Average Cash Earnings and Household Spending.                                                                                                                           

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USD/JPY fundamental mover

Japan’s inflation remains at very low levels. BoJ Core CPI, the preferred inflation gauge of the BoJ, edged lower to -0.1% in August, after two straight readings at zero. Retail Sales plunged 8.7% in September, marking a seventh consecutive decline. The Bank of Japan maintained monetary policy but lowered its economic and price forecasts for the current fiscal year.

In the US, durable goods orders were up sharply in September. The headline reading soared to 1.9%, up from 0.4%. This crushed the estimate of 0.5%. The core reading improved to 0.8%, up from 0.4%. Advance GDP jumped 33.1% in Q3 its strongest quarter on record. However, it barely recouped the Q2 loss of 31.4%. There was more good news on the employment front, as jobless claims fell to 751 thousand, down from 787 thousand beforehand. Core PCE Price Index, the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, edged down to 0.2%, down from 0.3%.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

107.88 is an important monthly resistance line.

107.29 (mentioned last week) is protecting the 107 level.

106.66 has held in resistance since the end of August.

105.52 is next.

104.11 is the first support level.

103.52 has held in support since March.

102.13 is the final support line for now.

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USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am neutral on USD/JPY

The US election will take center stage next week, and traders should be prepared for volatility on the currency markets. However, as the dollar and the yen are both safe-haven assets, USD/JPY movement could be limited.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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