USD/JPY – Forecast Sep. 30-Oct. 4 – Investors Uneasy Over New Sales Tax

0
Dollar/yen continues to have a solid September and recorded a winning week for a fifth straight time. The upcoming week is busy and investors will be keeping a close eye on Japanese retail sales and the Tankan manufacturing and services PMIs. As well, Japan will raise its sales tax from 8% to 10% on October 1, which could dampen consumer spending.

USD/JPY fundamental movers

Japanese data for September was weaker than expected. Tokyo Core CPI slowed to 0.5%, its weakest reading since May 2018. Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.9, down from 49.5 in August. 

In the U.S., this week’s hot topic was impeachment, as the Democrats initiated impeachment proceedings against President Trump, after a leaked phone call showed that Trump had discussed business dealings of Joe Biden, a presidential candidate, with the Ukrainian President. There were no surprises from third-estimate GDP for the second quarter, which came in at 2.0%. This confirmed the second estimate. This was significantly lower than the robust gain of 3.1% in the first quarter. Durable goods orders were better than expected – the headline reading came in at 0.2% and the core release posted a gain of 0.5%.

See all the main events in the Forex Weekly Outlook

Key news updates for USD/JPY

Updates:

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

We start with resistance at 111.62. 110.62 is next.

109.73, held in resistance since the end of May. 109.35 is close by.

108.70 follows.

108.10 is an immediate resistance line. It has weakened USD/JPY continues to gain ground.

107.30 is providing support.

106.61(mentioned last week) is next.

105.55 has held in support since late August.

104.65 has held firm since January. It is the final support line for now.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Sentiment

I am bullish on USD/JPY

The dollar continues to gain ground, as investor apprehensions over tensions in the Persian Gulf haven’t translated into gains for the safe-haven Japanese yen. The new sales tax could see consumer spending quickly drop, which does not bode well for the economy or the Japanese currency.

Further reading:

Safe trading!

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.