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USD/JPY has seen some impact from safe haven flows on trade concerns, but moves have been limited so far. What’s next?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

NAB Research discusses USD/JPY outlook and notes that the pair is likely to stay between a rock and a hard place over the coming months.

“The prospect of a broadly stronger USD – until Q4-18 at least – is partly offset in the case of USD/JPY given the likely bid for JPY (and other safe haven assets) amid the increase uncertainties surrounding the global political and economic outlook,” NAB argues.

“Thus  we think over the coming months USD/JPY is likely to be contained within a ¥108- ¥112 range with a test of the lower end of the range likely near term, before the upper end is tested later in the year, given our expectations for an improvement in the global growth outlook (EM positive) and a de-escalation in trade tensions,”

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