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Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, suggest that USD/JPY’s rejection from the 50% retracement at 108.43 (of the move down from April) and the mid-September high at 108.48 has become more emphatic and the erosion of the near term support line has seen the market slide back to last weeks low at 106.96.

Key Quotes

“Failure at 106.94 is likely to see the market extend lower still towards the 50% retracement at 106.47 and 106.00. We again have conflicting signals and will stand aside for today. Minor resistance is offered by the 107.72 20 day ma.”

“Resistance above 108.48 intensifies to the July and August highs as well as the 200 day moving average at 108.99/109.14, our near term goal. The 200 day ma guards the 55 and 200 week moving averages at 110.04/31.”