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  • USD/JPY is sticking to a  tight range in the open on Monday, even as Tokyo comes online.  
  • USD/JPY is currently trading at 111.02, within a range of between 111.03/18.

USD/JPY started out the week -0.5% versus early Friday, around 111.00, with a North American low of 110.79 after the US jobs data.  U.S. nonfarm payrolls came to a grinding halt in February, payrolls growing a mere +20k. This was a  miss vs 180k expected.  

“The details are healthier though, including a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 4% and continued firming in average hourly earnings, up 0.4% in the month, taking the annual pace to a new cycle high 3.4%. The weaker jobs print may include some noise from the earlier partial government shutdown, inclement weather, and payback for recent outsized gains (payrolls grew 311k in Jan and 227k in Dec).”

Analysts at Westpac explained.  

  • Brexit week: Get set for a rollercoaster of a week in GBP-FX

  • Fed’s Powell says no immediate policy responses needed to economy – Reuters

For the week ahead, traders will be soaking up Powell’s comments from over the weekend as well as looking to key data releases as follows, (courtesy of analysts at TD Securities highlighting the key events):  

11th March US retail sales:

“We expect notably weak auto and gasoline sales to drive headline retail sales 0.5% lower in January, following the sharp 1.2% m/m decline in the prior month. Indeed, headline ex-auto sales should come in flat for the month. On a positive note, we anticipate core retail sales to bounce back 0.4% m/m after December’s unexpected 1.7% tumble.”

Australia 12/13 March

“NAB confidence/conditions barely moved in Feb after the Dec slump. With a May election likely to generate a non-business friendly govt, no rebound and could slide further. Consumer sentiment is expected to tank after soft GDP spurred calls for RBA cuts. Consumers tend to associate rate cuts with “something is wrong” and we expect sentiment to slide back to 99 (prior 103.8).”

UK 12-14 Mar

Meaningful Vote 2 & Follow-ups

“Parliament votes on the Withdrawal Agreement on Tues, with hopes high that May can secure concessions from the EU over the weekend. We see about 35% chance it gets approved (see our latest update), meaning votes on No Deal (unlikely) & A50 Extension (possible) on Wed (and Thurs?). If all votes are defeated, markets could take this very negatively. The budget update is Wed too.”

15 March BoJ

“We expect no change in policy. Recent comments from Kuroda highlight that further easing could be contingent on the JPY. These are not credible however as the BOJ is hamstrung by a deterioration in JGB conditions as evidenced in its dealer survey. This, alongside global growth worries, could feature prominently in the upcoming meeting.”

USD/JPY levels

Valeria Bednarik,  Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained that the daily chart shows that the pair settled a few pips below its 100 and 200 DMA, both converging at 111.40, providing an immediate resistance, while technical  indicators  maintain their downward slopes but within positive ground. In the 4 hours chart, technical indicators have bounced modestly from oversold levels, while the pair briefly pierced the 100 SMA, now directionless, before closing a few pips above it, all of which suggest the decline may continue particularly if the pair remains below the mentioned 111.40 resistance.