USD/JPY Price Analysis: 5-day SMA again caps gains

• USD/JPY is bid, but trades below the 5-day SMA. 
• The pair remains stuck in a falling channel. 

The USD/JPY pair is struggling to penetrate the 5-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) hurdle for the second straight day. 

The pair is currently trading near 103.55, having faced rejection at the descending 5-day SMA of 103.63 a few minutes ago. 

A break above the SMA hurdle would expose the upper end of the falling channel represented by trendlines connecting Jan. 11 and Jan. 19 highs and Jan. 13 and Jan. 21 lows. The channel resistance is seen at 103.95 at press time. 

A close higher would confirm a breakout and signal a continuation of the recovery rally from the Jan. 6 low of 102.59 and allow a re-test of 104.40 (Jan. 11 high). 

On the downside, Thursday’s low of 103.33 is the level to beat for the sellers. 

Daily chart

Trend: Neutral

Technical levels