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  • USD/JPY rallied hard on the covid vaccine news as the greenback picked up a bid.
  • Markets are presuming shorter-term stimulus requirements and the coordination between the Federal Reserve and US government.
  • There is a potential trade setup in the making. 

Consequently, there has been a steady decline in the price due to profit-taking as the markets reassess the implications.

This gives rise to a potential opportunity to buy-in at a discount, depending on the technical environment of the market.

Currently, there has been a beautiful deceleration in the correction towards a structure which should give rise to some stability and would be expected to result in bullish structure from where the next upside target can be realised from. 

The following illustrates the strategy for a developing trade that could come to fruition over the next few sessions, depending on the market’s volatility:

In the hourly chart above, the price action could be expected to offer something similar for which bulls will need to monitor for continuous bullish structure as the market builds up a bullish price again.

15-min chart

Bulls will want to see the structure hold in this current phase of correction with the price holding above the 21 moving average and MACD above zero to confirm that bullish environment.

The price, would then be expected to continue higher to break structure, pull back to the old resistance that would be presumed a new support area and extend towards a -272% Fibonacci of the correction.

DXY analysis

For this to play out, we need to see a continuation in the correction of the USD dollar towards a 50% mean reversion: