- The USDJPY pair has registered only a false breakout above the historical level, so the retreat is natural.
- The USD rallied as expected after better than expected figures on Friday.
- A new higher high activates further growth.
The USD/JPY price turned to the downside in the short term as the Japanese Yen Futures rebounded while the Dollar Index retreated a little.
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The currency pair increased by 3.76% from Thursday’s low of 128.08 to yesterday’s high of 132.90. Now, it’s trading at 131.87 at the time of writing.
As expected, the price registered a strong rally after the US reported positive data on Friday. The NFP came in at 517K versus 193K expected, Unemployment Rate dropped unexpectedly from 3.5% to 3.4%, while ISM Services PMI came in at 55.2 far above 50.5 points estimated.
Today, the Japanese data came in mixed. Household Spending dropped by 1.3% versus the 0.3% drop expected, Average Cash Earnings rose by 4.8% beating the 2.5% growth forecasted, while Leading Indicators came in at 97.2% versus the 97.0% estimates and but below 97.4% in the previous reporting period.
Later, the US is to release the Trade Balance, the indicator is expected at -68.5B versus -61.5B in the previous reporting period. Consumer Credit will be released as well. Still, anything could happen around the Fed Chair Powell Speaks. This is seen as a high-impact event and the USD could register sharp movements.
Tomorrow, the Japanese Current Account and Bank Lending could bring some action as well. Fundamentally, the most important event of the week could be represented by the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday.
USD/JPY price technical analysis: Selling bias
The USD/JPY pair registered only a false breakout through the 132.87 former high and now it has turned to the downside. Technically, a temporary retreat is natural after reaching the supply zone.
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Also, it has failed to stay above the median line (ML) of the ascending pitchfork signaling exhausted buyers. Now, it has almost reached the 131.57 downside obstacle.
It remains to see how it will react around it, a valid breakdown may announce more declines. Only staying anova it and making a new higher high activates further growth.
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