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In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, USD/JPY is seeing some signs of recovery from its 38.2% retracement at 106.94 and should retest the 50% retracement at 108.43 (of the move down from April).

Key Quotes

“While this move lower is viewed as corrective only, it is possible that is may extend slightly towards the 50% retracement at 106.47 prior to stabilisation. We look for the market to then recover to the July and August highs as well as the 200 day moving average at 108.99/109.20.”

“Very near term failure to hold Fibo support at 106.47 would target the 105.74 current September low.”

“Failure at 104.10 would target the 2016 low at 99.00.”

“Short term trend (1-3 months): Remains above the 200 month moving average at 104.38, allow for recovery to the 110.00 region.”