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  • USD/JPY refreshes the seven month low.
  • Coronavirus fears intensify with the rising cases worldwide (ex-China), Lombardy grabs the attention.
  • The final reading of Japan’s Q4 GDP can offer immediate direction, risk catalysts remain as the key.

USD/JPY continues on its south-run while taking rounds to sub-105.00 area amid the initial Monday morning in Asia. In doing so, the risk barometer portrays the market’s fear of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak while also keeping eyes on the upcoming final reading of the fourth quarter (Q4) Japanese GDP data.

Coronavirus dampens the market’s trade sentiment…

With Italy’s death toll leaping to 366, the Government’s lockdown to Lombardy seems justifiable while increasing mortalities in France and Spain, to 19 and 17 respectively, also indicates the worsening of the situation in Europe.

Over the counter, the Trump administration took measures, as per Washington Post, over the weekend to disappoint travels by cruise amid increasing numbers of COVID-19 fatalities from the Grand Princess. Though, Vice President Mike Pence’s acceptance of a lack of testing kits and the number of people quarantined on Friday keep the risk-tone under pressure.

Following this, the US 10-year treasury yields dropped to the fresh record low near 0.77% while S&P 500 Futures is down more than 4.00%, 115 points, to 2,845 by the press time.

It should also be noted that the greenback failed to cheer better than forecast NFP numbers on Friday amid markets’ off-USD moves.

Traders will now pay close attention to Japan’s Q4 GDP, which is expected to magnify the recessionary fears by declining below -1.6% initial forecast to -1.7%. Should that happen, the government needs to break its silence and take some immediate action to respond to the global pandemic. As a result, the USD/JPY might witness immediate pullback amid a broad downtrend.

Technical Analysis

Unless bouncing back beyond 106.50, comprising October 2019 low and multiple highs marked during August 2019, buyers are less likely to return.