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  • USD/JPY is defending the uptrend from March and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement for the second day.
  • The widening bond yield differential favors the greenback.
  • Yesterday’s doji candle makes today’s close pivotal.

The USD/JPY pair has defended the support of the trendline from the March lows and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from March lows to July high.

At press time, the currency pair is trading at 111.30, having clocked a low of 111.06 earlier today. The rising trendline support is located at 111.15 and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement stands at 111.16.

The pair’s defense of the key support levels could be associated with the rising US-Japan yield differential. As of writing, the 10-year US-Japan yield differential stands at 288 basis points vs 280 basis points on Friday.

Further, the failure on the part of the bears to penetrate crucial support levels has neutralized the immediate bearish outlook. Still, it is too early to say the corrective rally has ended, technical charts indicate.

Moreover, the focus is on today’s NY close. The spot could have another go at the recent high of 113.17 if the NY close is above the previous day’s doji candle high of 111.54. On the other hand, a close below 110.75 (previous day’s doji candle low) would allow a drop to 110.00 (psychological support).

The 4-hour relative strength index (RSI) is rising from the oversold territory. This, coupled with the rising yield differential indicates the pair is more likely to close above the previous day’s doji candle high of 115.54.

4-hour chart


R1: 111.54 (100-candle MA on 4-hour chart)

R2: 112.20 (resistance as per 4-hour chart)

R3: 113.18 (July 19 high).


S1: 110.83 (200-candle 4-hour chart)

S2: 110.54 (50-day moving average)

S3: 110.00 (psychological level).