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FX Strategists at UOB Group believe USD/JPY still faces a probable break below the 105.00 level in the next weeks.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “Yesterday, we held the view that USD ‘could grind lower to 104.80’ and ‘the next support at 104.40 is unlikely to come into the picture’. Our view was not wrong as USD dipped to 104.75 before recovering. Downward momentum has eased and for today, USD is expected to consolidate and trade between 104.75 and 105.30.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “USD dropped by -0.71% yesterday (closed at 105.37) and downward momentum has improved further. We continue to hold a negative view and as highlighted yesterday (27 Jul, spot at 105.90), ‘the next level to focus on is at 105.00’. In view of the strong downward momentum, a break of 105.00 would not be surprising. That said, shorter-term conditions are oversold and the next support at 104.40 is unlikely to come into the picture so soon. All in, USD has to move above 106.30 (‘strong resistance’ level was at 106.80 yesterday) in order to indicate the current weakness has stabilized.”