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Key quotes

“In the medium-term USD/JPY may rise, due to boosts from the vaccine surge in growth and inflation.”

“But then heads lower as aggressive Fed hike bets are cut back …”

“We expect no hikes until 2024, whereas markets price about three hikes before then.0”

“In the second half of 2021, when we will be on the other side of the vaccine-led surge in US activity, and when Japan’s own vaccination campaign should be catching up, we expect USD/JPY to turn lower again.”

“Speculative yen shorts have accumulated despite the lack of evidence of Japanese foreign bond purchases accelerating.”

“A swing from longs to shorts in Q1 likely helped yen depreciation and this pressure on the currency is likely gone.”

“The yen is cheap relative to longer-term valuation.”  

 

more to come …

Expert score

5

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