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  • The USD/JPY hourly chart shows the bulls failed to capitalize on the falling wedge breakout witnessed on Aug. 14.
  • The stacking order of the major MAs on the 4-hour chart (50-candle below 100-candle below 200-candle) is signaling the path of least resistance is to the downside.
  • The pair risks falling below 109.92 (pennant support) – the move would confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change, that is, the rally from the March low of 104.63 has ended and the bears have regained control.
  • The bulls need to take out resistance at 111.43 (high of last Wed’s bearish outside-day candle).

4-hour chart

Spot Rate: 110.58

Daily High: 110.59

Daily Low: 110.41

Trend: Bearish below 109.92

Resistance

R1: 110.77 (5-day moving average)

R2: 111.02 (50-day moving average)

R3: 111.43 (Aug. 15 high)

Support

S1: 110.31 (previous day’s low)

S2: 109.96 (100-day moving average)

S3: 109.87 (200-day moving average)