Analysts from Mizuho Bank, see the USD/JPY pair moving to the downside on a 12 month period. They expect the Bank of Japan to keep its policy unchanged in coming quarters.
Key Quotes:
“The BoJ switched to QQEwYCC (with Yield Curve Control) in September 2016. We look for policy to be unchanged in coming quarters. We expect Japanese investors to buy overseas financial assets in FY18 and for corporates to continue outbound FDI and M&A activity but at a slower pace. As such, the pressure from the growing current account surplus should rise in FY18 helping the yen continue to pare its undervaluation.”
“The BoJ will struggle to add further accommodation and is to some extent reliant on developments overseas to keep the yen from appreciating too rapidly.“
“We look for USD/JPY to decline further over the coming 12 months. The risks of a global trade war should weigh on the yen given its role as a global safe haven. With speculative investors close to neutral it should be a grind lower for USD/JPY.”
“We see the pair testing the 100 level on a 12-month horizon, with JPY likely to be the primary beneficiary if EUR risks spiral out of control.”
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