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  • USD/JPY maintains a bearish bias for now.  
  • Poor US data and lower yields help the bears.  
  • US NFP data next week can provide a fresh stimulus to the pair.  

The USD/JPY weekly analysis shows bearish bias despite a positive close on Friday. Overall, the week closed in red, suggesting further downside.

The potential for higher US yields sometimes disappears when poor economic data pushes a cautious perception of the Fed and declines in government bond yields since November.

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The USD/JPY pair has lost its highs this week but has only been trading for two months. Due to weak US statistics and stable monetary policy, the pair buying was not volatile, and Japan’s contribution was not positive. Therefore, there was considerable logic in selling the pair.

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Sugi’s remarked on Friday that the Delta variant is spreading rapidly among the elderly was a warning about the country’s near-term economic future.

The conclusion, strongly endorsed by the Federal Reserve in Wednesday’s decision, noted that “progress” had been made in meeting the bank’s goals, but not in the asset purchase program. Meanwhile, Chair Jerome Powell hesitated and left the market at the next Fed meeting on Sep 21/22.

Powell held a briefing in which it was determined that the termination of cash aid and the current problem are part of his responsibilities. He noted that the US job market was “a bit in disguise” before the bank took out its $120 billion monthly purchase loan and securities loan.

Treasuries were slightly lower this week on the back of a lack of credit market regulation and moderate growth in the US, as well as continued active pandemic specialization and supply chain problems.

However, compared to the economies of Japan and America, the United States has a strong advantage and is the mainstay of the Dollar.

US economic data showed that durable goods orders in June were weaker than expected. Although their impact was mitigated by a significant positive revision of data in May. Quarterly GDP amounted to 6.5% against the forecast of 8.5%. The PCE for June was lower than expected, but the Fed did not exert any pressure in March with no political clout or opportunity.

Data from Japan shows improvement, with industrial production recovering from May losses in June. So, Japan is still living slowly and can only get rid of the sands of COVID from its economic security. Scissors oversees the Tokyo Summer Olympics and adds the best of Japan’s growing list of disappointments.

Important events for USD/JPY next week

The most important event ahead is the US NFP report due on Friday. The US employment report on Friday is critical for the US Dollar. The nonfarm labor market is expected to grow to 926,000 in July, reducing unemployment by two clicks to 5.7 percent. It seems like many people are now returning to the labor market after the generous unemployment benefits have expired.

NZD/USD weekly news analysis

The US economy needs about 6.7 million jobs to fully recover. However, many people have decided to retire after the pandemic broke out. Some estimates put it at around 3 million. As a result, America could need about 4 million jobs to fully recover, which means we could be at full employment by the end of the year.

On the other hand, data from Japan is low-tiered which may not leave any significant impact on the USD/JPY.

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USD/JPY weekly technical analysis: Key levels to watch

Although the USD/JPY pair found bottom just under mid-109.00, the bearish pressure is still too strong for the buyers to overcome. Hence, the small upside recovery is only a correction and may not be a call for a bullish reversal. The crossover of 200-day SMA and 50-day SMA shows that there is more potential for a deeper downside movement. Immediate support lies at 109.00 ahead of 108.55 and then 107.50.

USD/JPY weekly analysis on daily chart
USD/JPY weekly analysis on daily chart

On the upside, 110.00 serves as a strong resistance ahead of 110.55 and finally 111.55. Currently, bears look prominent and there is less probability for any upside move.

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