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Since the recovery in April, the RUB has been trading in a narrow range of 73.5-74 versus the USD and slightly below 80 vs. the EUR. Analysts at Nordea see the USD/RUB below 70 if oil prices increase. Credit Suisse is also pointing to strength in the pair with higher oil prices.

Key quotes

“Should external risks not materialise, we believe the RUB could reach levels of 72 against the USD and 80 against the EUR by the end of June.”

“A more pronounced recovery to levels below 70 against the USD may be possible in H2 2020 if we see a strong rebound in global economic activity boosting risk sentiment and oil prices.”