USD/RUB: Ruble benefiting from softening in monetary policy, geopolitical risks remain the major driver – Danske Bank

According to analysts from Danske Bank, the softening stance from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve could help the Russian ruble. They forecast USD/RUB at 66.10 in 1 month, at 68.20 in 3M, 70.00 in 6M and 71.00 in 12 M.  

Key Quotes:  

“The RUB refuses to follow closely the oil price. While the Brent 30-day average climbed 7% over the 30 days to 13 March 2019, RUB/USD gained just 0.2% over the same period, driven mostly by improved risk sentiment and US Congress being silent on antiRussia sanctions.”

“Geopolitical risks remain the major driver ahead. We will be watching closely the election in Ukraine on 31 March and Russia’s reaction.”

“The RUB continues to see relief as US Congress seems too busy with domestic issues to push through the anti-Russian ‘bill from hell’ sanctions. The RUB is clearly benefiting from the looser monetary stances of the ECB and the Fed, as global emerging markets sentiment improves and Russia’s solid macro combined with attractive carry lures ‘yield hunters’. Yet, we believe sentiment could see a U-turn any moment, if geopolitics gets worse.”