According to Piotr Matys, Emerging Markets FX Strategist at Rabobank, the Turkish lira might not be completely out of the woods just yet despite the recent recovery.
The Turkish lira is in a recovery mode after Turkey and the US agreed to a temporary ceasefire to allow Kurdish fighters – who until recently were US allies in the region – to retreat from the area which Turkey intends to use as a safe zone to relocate a few millions Syrian refugees.
While the agreement negotiated by Vice President Pence is a step in the right direction, the respite for the lira could be short-lived if the 5-days ceasefire does not lead to a permanent truce. There seems to be – based on comments from various lawmakers – a relatively strong incentive on Capitol Hill to penalise Turkey for its military offensive in northern Syria, even if it is rational and justified from the Turkish perspective due to the overwhelming number of Syrian refugees and Kurdish fighters being a threat to Turkey’s security. The risk of tough economic sanctions hasn’t vanished.