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“Signs that the difficult relationship between global investors and Turkey was starting to thaw pushed the lira 2% stronger on 16 and 17 April,” note TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“But it only lasted for two days and USDTRY is now back at levels briefly seen in January. Critical USDTRY resistance at around 5.8918 (3 Jan high) is now dangerously close.”

“Political risks should remain on the radar screens of investors. USDTRY and rates will continue to be affected by two very contentious issues – the S-400 deal with Russia, and the verdict from the YSK on appeals against the Istanbul vote result. There are few reasons for optimism, and more reasons for pessimism. Most of this note revolves around these two matters.”

“Finally, the CBRT will announce interest rates tomorrow. Normally we would pay greater attention to this event, but we expect it to be a hold across the board, and so does the almost unanimous consensus.”