USD/TRY falls below 4.56 and snaps back following Turkish election win for Erdogan

• Lira gained ground rapidly in the election run-up, recedes after the incumbent Erdogan retains his post.
• The potential for lower interest rates looking forward to sap bullish potential out of the TRY.

The USD/TRY is on the rise for Monday, up over 1.4% from the day’s early low after surprise results from the Turkish election put the incumbent Erdogan back in the seat of power.

The Turkish Lira topped-out on Monday at 4.5800 against the USD following the Presidential elections, but Erdogan’s surprise win, which was not expected by the majority of pre-election polls, has sent the USD/TRY surging, breaking into 4.6500 and on track to close the week’s deep opening gap after Friday saw the pair end last week at 4.6627.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s retention of Turkey’s seat of power may see headwinds for the TRY looking forward, according to Commerzbank analysts:

“Erdogan will feel empowered with his renewed mandate and also the absence of mandate obtained by the newly constituted opposition alliance. He is likely to take more control of economic policies more directly…  there is a distinct probability now that the average interest rate in Turkey will end up lower than it is at present. This may or may not occur via Erdogan directly ordering CBT to lower interest rates – but it is quite likely that Erdogan will push for cheap credit for smaller, domestic corporates via the state banks.” – Commerzbank

USD/TRY levels to watch

The USD is back on the rise against the Lira, though the pair is still off of June’s highs near 4.7755 after the TRY gained ground in the run-up to the Turkish elections, and the pair is still trading well above the recent floor priced in at recent swing lows near 4.4400, and an extended slide for the Lira will easily see May’s peak USD/TRY levels in the 4.9260 region.