USD/TRY Price Analysis: Bulls can’t catch a break, yet

• Bulls not catching a break here as the US dollar crumbles.
• TRY and emerging FX to benefit from a weaker dollar environment. 
• Technically, the conditions are, however, somewhat closer to a favourable bullish setup.

In a follow-up to the prior session’s analysis, USD/TRY, remains on track for the following setup.

• USD/TRY Price Analysis: Bulls seeking a bullish extension from daily support

This is despite the weakness in the DXY, a basket of currencies weighted heavily to the euro and a number of other G7-FX currencies.

The price is moving dangerously against the bullish outlook for USD/TRY, for is the US does indeed tend lower, then the emerging market forex will eventually benefit, especially high yielders such as TRY.

The following is the prior day’s analysis of DXY t illustrate where this trade set up could all fall down:

Meanwhile, for a recap of the set-up, here were yesterday’s analysis:

Weekly chart

At the start of the week, the price was opening bullish and seeking to fill in the wick which gave rise to a potential trading opportunity on the daily chart, as follows:

The upside potential and setup is being monitored on the 4-hour chart, as illustrated in yesterday’s analysis as follows:

There was still some work left to do from the bulls for price needs to get above the 21-moving average and MADC needs to be above the zero-line to confirm a bullish price action environment. 

We are inching closer to the setup criteria on Tuesday as follows:

We want to see a clean break to the upside and above the 21-moving average and MACD more positive than this.

Let’s see if the price can form some bullish structure in a more favourable environment for where a buy limit order and entry protected by structure and a stop loss can be placed in coming sessions.