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Turkey’s lira fell for the third straight trading day on Tuesday, pushing USD/TRY well above 7.9191 – the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the sell-off from 8.5777 to 7.5119. 

The close above the Fibonacci level indicates that the correction from record highs has ended, and the bulls have regained control. The pair could soon challenge the next resistance at 8.1706 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) – more so, as the MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge trend strength and trend changes, is about to cross into bullish territory above zero. 

A close below the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 7.8986 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of recent lows. 

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Technical levels

Resistance: 8.1706 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), 8.3679 (4-hour chart hurdle)

Support: 7.8986 (50-day SMA), 7.5119 (recent low)