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The Rabobank Research Team provide the near-term outlook on the Turkish Lira, in the wake of rising geopolitical tensions surrounding Turkey and Syria.

Earlier this morning, Turkish President Erdogan said that he hopes to visit US President Trump in the first half of next month.

Key Quotes:

“The Turkish lira was the weakest link in the EM space in the early hours of trading as Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria seems imminent.

If it wasn’t for President Erdogan convincing Trump that Turkey cannot wait any longer to create a bigger buffer with Syria (as Turkey has reached its limits for hosting refugees), USD/TRY would have been trading significantly higher, i.e. at least around 6.00. Initial market reaction so far today has been therefore relatively restrained.

That said, the path of the least resistance in the short-term is skewed to the upside in USD/TRY as a military conflict is never positive for the markets.”