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Axel Rudolph, Senior Analyst at Commerzbank, notes that  USD/TRY’s descent has so far taken it to its current November low at 5.2378, to below the April-to-November
2018 support line, now at 5.4324.

Key quotes

“2018 support line and the 200 day moving average at 4.9861/4.9739 remaining in focus.”

“The next lower May and mid-July highs at 4.9624/4.9233 may also be reached. The currency pair may well stabilise there, however.”

“While the cross remains below the four month resistance  line at 5.4324 and, more importantly, the mid-August low and late October high as well as the 55 day moving average at 5.6972/5.8692, we will retain our medium term bearish forecast.”