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Analysts at Rabobank recommedn to be mindful of a corrective rebound higher in the coming days, but USD/TRY has not bottomed yet and 6.86 should come under pressure in due course.

Key quotes

“The hawkish policy bias of the CBRT will continue to weigh on USD/TRY. The support area around 6.86 is the next key technical level to watch on the downside.”

“At some stage, the CBRT may start purchasing hard currencies to replenish depleted FX reserves and also to preserve the competitiveness of Turkish exporters. However, the CBRT may opt to wait until inflation peaks in April and starts falling before it enters the FX market. Based on this timeline we see scope for USD/TRY to fall to around 6.50 in the coming months.”


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