USD/TRY: We maintain a negative bias – Commerzbank

Analysts at Commerzbank, still hold a negative bias for the USD/TRY pair. They point out the rebound remains capped by the 200-day moving average, leaving attention on the November lowt 5.1331

Key Quotes:  

“USD/TRY continues to recover from the November low at 5.1331 in late January but so far has remained capped by the 200-day ma at 5.3842. We maintain a negative bias.”

“Further short-term consolidation is on the cards but once the 5.1331 low has been slipped through, the May and mid-July highs at 4.9624/4.9233 will be back in the picture. The currency pair may well stabilise there, though. Resistance still sits between the mid-October low as well as the November 9 and mid-January highs at 5.5329/5.5454. Further up sits the November peak at 5.6492.”

“Only if the November high were to unexpectedly be bettered on a daily chart closing basis, would a base formation be made with the late October and the January highs at 5.8692/6.0760 then being in focus. While the cross remains below this area, overall downside pressure should retain the upper hand, though.”