USD/CAD Forecast Oct. 5-9 – Investors await Canada employment numbers

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USD/CAD dropped 0.5% last week, as the pair closed the week at just above the 1.33 level. There are five events next week, including employment change. Here is an outlook at the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canada’s Raw Materials Price Index gained 3.2% in August, marking a third consecutive gain. However, this reading was well short of the forecast of 6.2%. Canada’s GDP showed a gain of 3.0% in July, edging above the estimate of 2.9%. The economy has grown for three straight months, after a sharp decline of 11.6% in April. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 56.0 in September, up from 55.1 beforehand. The PMI has accelerated for five straight months.

The week started on a positive note in the US, as the Conference Board Consumer Confidence jumped to 101.8 in September, up from 86.3. This easily beat the forecast of 90.0 points. Third-estimate GDP for the second quarter was upwardly revised to 31.4%, up from 31.7%. On the manufacturing front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI remained well in expansionary territory, with a reading of 55.4 points, down slightly from 56.0. The neutral 50-mark separates contraction from expansion.

Job growth slowed sharply in September, as Nonfarm Payrolls fell to 661 thousand, down from 1.37 million beforehand. This was much weaker than the estimate of 900 thousand. Wage growth dropped from 0.4% to 0.1%, missing the forecast of 0.5%.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. Trade Balance: Tuesday, 12:30. Canada continues to record trade deficits. In July, the trade deficit narrowed to C$2.5 billion, down from C$3.2 billion. Will the indicator rebound in August?
  2. Ivey PMI: Wednesday, 14:00. The Ivey PMI is an important gauge of business activity. The index slipped to 22.8 in August, down from 26.0 beforehand. This points to a sharp contraction in economic activity, as the 50-level separates contraction from expansion. We now await the September data.
  3. Housing Starts: Thursday, 12:15. Housing starts continue to accelerate, pointing to an improving construction sector. In August, the indicator rose to 262 thousand, up from 242 thousand a month earlier. Will the upswing continue in the September release?
  4. Employment Report: Thursday, 12:30. The economy created 245.8 thousand jobs in August, down from 418.5 thousand in July. The unemployment rate continues to fall and dropped to 10.2% in August, down sharply from 10.9%. We now await the September data, which should be treated as a market-mover.
  • All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.3598.

1.3420 (mentioned last week) has held in resistance since the first week in August.

1.3330 has switched to a resistance role. It is a weak line.

1.3230 is the first support level.

1.3149 is next.

1.3016 is the final support level for now.

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I am bullish on USD/CAD

With the US showing weak job numbers at the end of the week, risk appetite could be hampered, which would weigh on the minor currencies such as the US dollar. Investors are also apprehensive over the inability of Congress to push through a fiscal stimulus bill.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.