The Canadian dollar continued to retreat against its southern neighbor. Where will it stop? Ivey PMI and especially employment figures in Canada and in the US are the highlights of this week. Here’s an outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for the USD/CAD.
Last week GDP growth rate for July rose in line with expectations by 0.3%. This hardly cheered the loonie. Will the Canadian economy evade the current global slowdown?
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
- Building Permits: Thursday, 12:30. The value of Canadian building permits decreased unexpectedly by 0.6% to C$6.6 billion in July despite the former announcement of 6.3% increase. Analysts expected 0.2% rise. Housing permits rose by 2.4% while nonresidential permits dropped by 4.5%. Another rise of 0.6% is expected now.
- Ivey PMI: Thursday, 14:00. Purchasing activity by companies increased in August reaching 56.4 from 46.8 in July rising hoped for enhanced growth in the third quarter. This reading surpassed analysts predictions of 46.7 indicating better market conditions. A rise to 58.2 is predicted.
- Employment data: Friday, 11:00.Canada’s economy decreased the number of jobs by 5,500 in August following a 7,100 increase in the previous month. This reading was contrary to predictions of 24,200 new jobs. Meanwhile Unemployment rate increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month starting to resemble the US job market conditions. Nevertheless there is a healthy shift from part time employment to full time jobs which indicates a positive trend in the job market. Canadian employment market is expected to add 19,600 new positions while unemployment rate is predicted to remain 7.3%.
*All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
Dollar/CAD began the week with a drop, after being capped by the 1.0373 line (mentioned last week). After dropping as low as 1.0143, the pair began an upwards climb and closed at 1.0499, just under the 1.0510 line. Another weak week for the loonie.
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We begin from levels last seen two years ago – 1.0990, just under the round 1.10 line. This cannot be ruled out given the recent moves. 1.0850 was a double top – both in 2009 and 2010 and is the next distant line.
1.0750, that capped the pair several times in the past, the last being May 2010 is strong resistance as well. Next, we also have a multiple and strong resistance line at 1.0677, last seen in August 2010.
1.0510 is a minor resistance line that was pivotal around the same time and was a point of resistance before the pair fell. It is now immediate resistance. 1.0373 capped the pair several times back in October 2010 and is of high importance. It switched to support now.
1.03 is a minor line that the pair struggled with. The round 1.02 line capped the pair at the end of 2010 and was the low of 2009. It already managed to switch positions and is important/
1.0080 is another minor line was pivotal at the end of 2010. The very round number of USD/CAD parity is a clear line of course, and it will be closely watched on a potential downfall.
Under parity, 0.9915 was a peak back in June and is now minor support, after being run through recently. The last line for now is 0.9780, where the current run began.
I remain bullish on USD/CAD.
Despite nice growth in Canada back in July and some signs of improvement in the US, the general direction of the Canadian economy is lower. The lowest weekly close of oil prices in 2011 also weighs on the Canadian dollar as US QE2 continues to unwind.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.
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