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With lower oil and a weak US economy, the Canadian dollar found itself on the retreat. Inflation data and GDP are the highlight of this week. Here’s an  outlook  for the Canadian events, and an updated technical analysis for the Canadian dollar

Last week Retail sales rose below expectations indicating a weakening in the Canadian market with peaking households’ debts and vague global outlook the BOC is unlikely to raise rates soon. Will this trend continue?

USD/CAD  daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:USD CAD Chart  June 27 July 1 2011

Let’s Start:

  1. Agathe Cote Speaks: Tuesday, 16:45. Agathe  Côté Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, in charge the bank’s financial system is scheduled to speak in Toronto about the “Risks for the Global and Canadian Financial Systems”.
  2. Inflation data: Wednesday, 11:00. Consumer price index expanded by 0.3% in  April following a prior rise of 1.1% and below expectations of 0.5% while Core CPI increased by 0.2% better than the 0.1% gain predicted following 0.7% rise in the previous month. Both CPI and Core CPI are expected a 0.2% gain.
  3. GDP: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s economy rebounded in March by gaining 0.3% in Gross Domestic Product following a drop of 0.1% in the previous month led by growth in manufacturing sectors. A decrease of 0.1% is expected now.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical  Analysis

USD/CAD traded lower at the beginning of the week, and was nicely capped by the 0.9750 line (discussed last week). When this line was broken, the pair jumped higher, eventually closing just under 0.99.

Technical lines, from top to bottom:

1.02 is a very far line in the distance, but a rise could make it relevant. Still distant and minor resistance appears above parity, at 1.0060. This was the highest level in 2011.

The very round number of USD/CAD parity is the obvious line below, although it isn’t too strong.  Under parity, we have a close line – 0.9977, which was a trough in 2010, was also tested at the beginning of March and proved to be significant.

The recent peak and round number of 0.99 is the next hurdle. It will be tested early in the week. 0.9816 capped the pair over and over again, but after failing to hold now, it is now support.

0.9750 was a very distinctive line earlier, separating ranges in a great way. It is now somewhat weaker than beforehand, but provides support. 0.9667 was a cushion in March and later worked as resistance. This line provided support a few weeks ago, and has a more important role now.

0.96 is a minor support line that played a role recently. More important support is at 0.9520 – it worked as support and also as minor resistance during April.

0.9450 was a double bottom just now and is very important – it’s the new 2011 low. Below this line, we have lines last seen in 2007 – 0.92 is notable, as well as the historic low of 0.9056.

I am bullish on USD/CAD.

With the global economy slowing down, including Canada’s most important trade partner, the US, and falling oil prices, there’s room for a challenge of parity for the pair. In addition, rates aren’t expected to rise anytime soon.

Further reading: