The Canadian dollar retreated this week but didn’t lose too much. The week ahead contains the GDP release, a rate decision and a few more important events. Here’s the outlook for the Canadian events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:
One figure is missing from this week’s calendar: the all-important job figures that will be release only next week. I’ll just remind that last month’s job figures were superb. OK, let’s start the review:
- GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. A strong start for the loonie this week. This monthly GDP release closes the fourth quarter of 2009. Last month’s 0.4% growth is predicted to be repeated with the same number this time, completing a good Q4 for Canada. Given the good numbers from the US in Q4, also Canada should enjoy strong growth.
- RMPI: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT and overshadowed by the GDP release. Raw materials are important for the commodity-oriented Canadian economy. Last month, prices disappointed with a fall of 1.7%. A rise of 1.9% is predicted this time, and will support the loonie.
- Rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. As in previous months, the focus is on the wording of the BOC Rate Statement. Despite improving economic conditions, Mark Carney and his colleagues haven’t changed their clear declaration not to raise the rates before June 2010. The rate isn’t expected to move from the rock-bottom level of 0.25%.
- Building Permits: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Canadian permits saw a huge leap three months ago, and have relaxed since then. Growth of 1.1% is predicted to follow last month’s 2.4% rise. This is an important figure, no matter the outcome.
- Ivey PMI: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. The Richard Ivey Business School has a highly regarded purchasing managers’ index. After some weak months, this figure aligned with the other Canadian figures and rose above 50, indicating expansion. A jump to 55.1 is expected this time, getting closer to the levels seen in the fall.
- Annual Budget Release: Published on Thursday. The government’s budget contains an important release – the growth forecast for 2010. This is expected to be revised to the upside, given the improving data. The predictions and the overview should supply shaky trading for USD/CAD.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD began the week with an attempt to break below 1.04. When the attempts failed, it shot up, breaking the minor resistance line of 1.0530 (that appeared last week), reached 1.0680 before closing at 1.0514.
I’ve now marked 1.0680 as a minor resistance line, after its role in the past week. Above, 1.0780 continues to be the upper limit of big range that USD/CAD is trading in: 1.04 to 1.0780.
Above, 1.0850 was a peak before the pair entered this range, and 1.1130 remains a distant but strong resistance line that a role many months ago.
Looking down, 1.04 provides very strong support, followed by 1.02, the 2009. USD/CAD got close to 1.02 also in 2010.
Even lower, the ultimate resistance line is 1.0000 – USD/CAD parity, but a breach of 1.04 must be seen beforehand.
I am bearish on USD/CAD.
The Canadian economy is in a good shape, according to most parameters, and this should be seen again this week.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major event in all currencies, read the forex weekly outlook.
- For the Euro, read the EUR USD Forecast.
- For GBP/USD, look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar, read the AUD/USD forecast.
- For USD/CAD, check out the Canadian dollar forecast.
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