USD/CAD Outlook – October 11-15

The simultaneous release of trade balance in the US and Canada is the highlight of this week’s events. Here’s an outlook for the market moving events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

USD/CAD graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

This time, Canadian jobs dropped. This hurt the Canadian dollar and sent USD/CAD higher, after it already reached low levels not seen in quite some time. Will the loonie recover?

1. NHPI: Published on Wednesday at 12:30. Prices of new homes fell last month – the first time in over a year. This is a sign of the rate hikes’ success and also of the slowdown in the  Canadian  economy. Only a big rise will increase the chance of a movement in the rates, but another 0.1% drop is expected now.
2. Trade Balance: Thursday, 12:30. Canada’s balance turned negative three months ago. The deficit unexpectedly deepened to 2.7 billion last month, hurting the loonie. This deficit is likely to squeeze now to 2.1 billion. Note that the American trade balance is released at the same time, making USD/CAD very choppy around this release. In the US, the deficit is much bigger.
3. Manufacturing Sales: Friday, 12:30. The volume of sales coming from manufacturers slipped in the past two months, after almost a year of growth. The 0.9% drop last month was especially painful. A 0.5% rise is expected now – a correction.

USD/CAD traded between 1.02 and 1.0280 at the beginning of the week. It then dropped sharply, cutting through 1.01 (mentioned in last week’s outlook) and reached 1.0062. Another jump to 1.0234 was followed by last minute drop to close at 1.0068.

At the current close, the 1.01 line turned into resistance. This was a low point in August.  1.02, which was the 2009 low, is the next resistance line. 1.0280 is the next minor line of resistance.

The 1.0350 line held down the pair for another week in a row, and remains a very strong resistance line.  Higher, 1.05 held the pair twice during August is a tough line..

Above, the stubborn 1.0680 served as resistance in July and in August, for more than one day in each attempt to break.  Higher, 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit  of a long-term range in 2009. Even higher on the upside, 1.0850, which was also a swing high in May.

Below, there aren’t many line: the pair is now close to the ultimate support line – parity. Below 1, the next line of support is 0.9930.

Even lower, 0.98 and 0.97 were lines of support back in 2008, and are not so far now.

I am neutral on USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar enjoyed the weak dollar and the rising price of oil. On the other hand, its own fundamentals, such as the disappointing employment report, point to the other direction.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the  USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar forecast.

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