The Canadian dollar showed some strength during the week against the US dollar, but was unable to hold onto these gains, and ended the week almost unchanged. USD/CAD closed the week just above the 1.03 line. This week’s major release is Core Retail Sales. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
The Canadian dollar posted sharp gains following the Fed’s non-taper announcement, but was unable to consolidate these gains, and climbed back above the 1.03 line. US releases bounced back last week, led by a solid Unemployment Claims release. Manufacturing and housing data also was strong.
USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge: 
- Core Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. This is the key release of the week. Core Retail Sales is considered more reliable than Retail Sales, since the latter includes automobile sales, which tend to be quite volatile. The July release was awful, with a decline of -0.8%. This was way off the estimate of +0.1%. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround for the August release, with an estimate of 0.6%. Will the indicator meet or beat this prediction?
- Retail Sales: Tuesday, 12:30. Retail Sales also had a weak showing last month, posting a decline of -0.6%. This missed the estimate of -0.3%. The estimate for August stands at a solid gain of +0.6%.
- BOC Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri Speaks: Tuesday, 16:30. Schembri will address a financial forum in Ottawa. Analysts will be looking for clues as to monetary policy or interest rate shifts in the speech. Any remarks which are “out of the ordinary” could affect the movement of USD/CAD.
* All times are GMT.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD opened the week at 1.0312 and touched a high of 1.0335. The pair then fell sharply, dropping all the way to 1.0182, as support at 1.0182 (discussed last week) held firm. The pair then climbed back up, closing the week at 1.0303.
Live chart of USD/CAD: [do action=”tradingviews” pair=”USDCAD” interval=”60″/]
Technical lines, from top to bottom:
We start with resistance at 1.0853 is next. This line has held firm since May 2010.
1.0723 was a cap in mid-2010, before the US dollar tumbled and dropped all the way into 0.93 territory.
1.0660 is an important resistance line, which was last tested in September 2010.
1.0523 was a peak back in November 2011. This line saw some action earlier this month, but is currently providing strong resistance.
1.0446 was a cap in mid-July, but has been providing support for the past several weeks. This line has some breathing room as the pair trades in the mid-1.03 range.
1.0340 continues to provide USD/CAD with weak resistance. This line was breached again this week as the pair lost ground before recovering.
1.0250 is the first support level that we encounter. This line has not been tested since July.
1.0180 provided support for the pair during March, and saw a lot of activity in the first half of June. This line remained intact as the Canadian dollar showed some strength in mid-week trading.
The round number of 1.01 was a trough back in July 2012 and switched to resistance afterwards. The line proved its strength several times in 2013, most recently in mid-May.
1.0050 provided support for the pair in May 2013 and on other occasions beforehand. It remains a barrier before parity. The very round number of parity is a clear line and has not been tested since mid-February.
The final support line for now is 0.9910. This line was last tested in January, which marked the start of a strong US dollar rally which saw USD/CAD climb to the mid-1.03 range.
I am bullish on USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar couldn’t hold onto gains after the Fed non-taper announcement, and strong US releases point to an improving economy which bodes well for the US dollar. Canadian releases were respectable last week, but the US economy continues to outpace its northern neighbor.
Further reading:
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
- USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.
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