USD/CAD: Trading the Canadian GDP Dec 2012


Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measurement of the production and growth of the economy, and analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the Canadian dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.

Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Canadian GDP is released monthly and provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the economy. Traders should pay particular attention to this economic indicator and treat it as a market-mover.

GDP has looked sluggish recently, with November release coming in at a flat 0.0%. The forecast for the upcoming release calls for a negligible rise of 0.1%. Will the indicator surprise the markets and beat the low estimate?

Sentiments and levels

With more QE from the US and the US economy showing improvement, Canada can continue growing receiving positive flows. Also the excellent employment numbers in November and the fact that the price of oil has stabilized bode well for the loonie. Finally, the Canadian dollar should benefit if there is a resolution to the fiscal cliff crisis south of the border. Thus, the overall sentiment is bearish on USD/CAD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.00, 0.9950, 0.9910, 0.9880 , 0.9817 and 0.9725.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: -0.2% to 0.4%. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 0.5% to 0.8%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well below one support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 0.8%: An unexpected surge in the reading would push USD/CAD downwards, and a second support level might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: -0.3% to -0.6%:  A lower GDP figure than predicted could cause the pair to climb and break one resistance line.
  5. Well below expectations: Below -0.6%. If GDP shows serious contraction, USD/CAD could rise and could break a second resistance level.

For more on the loonie, see the USD/CAD forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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