USD/CHF: Trading the Swiss CPI

The  Swiss CPI (Consumer Price Index), which is released every month, is an inflation index which measures the change in the price of goods and services paid by consumers. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Swiss franc.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CHF.

Published on Monday at 7:15 GMT.

Indicator Background

Analysts consider CPI one of the most important economic indicators, and the release of the  Swiss CPI can affect the direction of USD/CHF.   Higher inflation  signals stronger economic activity, which is bullish for the Swiss franc.

The CPI reading  jumped by 0.6% last month,  above the market forecast and its highest level since April 2011. The markets are predicting a modest increase of 0.2% in May.

Sentiments and levels

After trading in choppy waters throughout April,  USD/CHF has been moving  upwards in May. Although recent US releases have been mixed, investors  remain very concerned  with what is happening throughout Europe. Last week’s weak Euro-zone unemployment figures sent the Euro tumbling, and the Swiss franc is also paying the price, as the dollar benefits from the crisis on the continent. Thus, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/CHF towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.9317, 0.9250, 0.9204, 0.9156, 0.91, and 0.90.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: -0.1% to 0.5%. In this scenario, USD/CHF could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 0.6% to 0.9%: A stronger reading than predicted could push the pair below one support level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 0.9%: An unexpectedly sharp rise in inflation could push USD/CHF   below two or more support levels.
4. Below expectations: -0.5% to -0.2%: A reading in negative territory would signal weak economic activity, and the pair could break one resistance lines.
5. Well below expectations: Below -0.5%: A very weak reading could result in the pair breaking two or more resistance lines.

For more on the Swiss franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.