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The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The indicator, which is released monthly, has a major effect on USD/CHF.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CHF.

Published on Friday at 9:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

The KOF Economic Barometer is based on 12 economic indicators, and provides important data to analysts trying to predict the direction of the Swiss economy for the next six months.

The index has been on a steady downward trend since May. September’s reading came in at 1.21, well below the forecast of 1.41. Will the downturn continue? October’s forecast is for 1.01, so the markets are bracing for the indicator to continue to nosedive.  

Sentiments and levels

The Swiss franc has made some recent gains against the dollar. However, with the US economic picture slightly brighter, this push by the franc could stall. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on USD/CHF towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom:   .90, .8930, .88, .8680 .8550, and .8460.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 0.90 to 1.10: In such a case, USD/CHF is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 1.10 to 1.20: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair well  below one  support line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 1.20: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome would prop up the franc, and a second  support line might be broken as a result.
  4. Below expectations: 0.80 to 0.90: A sharper decrease than forecast could cause the pair to drift and  break one level of resistance.
  5. Well below expectations: Under 0.80: In this scenario, USD/CHF will  rise and could break two or more levels of resistance.

For more on the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.

Expert score

5

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