USD/JPY Outlook -May 23-27

The pair managed to recover after the long fall. Is it a temporary consolidation, or a shift? Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Inflation data and Retail Sales are the major events this week. Let’s review the main market-movers for this week and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

The Bank of  Japan  kept monetary policy steady without offering near-term monetary easing is hope Japan’s economy would recover around autumn. Bank officials claim that although Japan suffers enormous damages following the earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear crises production is progressing in a steady pace to supply overseas  growing demand bringing optimism is these hard times.

USD/JPY daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

Let’s start:

1. BOJ Monthly Report: Monday, 6:00. In its last monthly repot the Bank of Japan lowered its assessment of the economy for the first time in six months following the major earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on March 11 creating a nuclear crisis with immeasurable consequences. The BOJ stated that the economy is a downward spiral effecting all economy sectors and Japanese households.
2. Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 0:50. In its previous Monetary Policy Meeting BOJ board members could not foretell the time needed to amend Japan’s broken supply chain following the massive disaster and warned about its devastating consequences on the already fragile economy.
3. Trade Balance: Wednesday, 0:50. Friday, 0:30. Japan’s current account surplus shrank  in March to 0.10T from 0.40T in the previous month following the decrease in exports and imports after the devastating earthquake and tsunami. The lasting effects of the nuclear disaster affecting power supply could further hurt production.
4. Masaaki Shirakawa  speaks: Wednesday, 4:30, Saturday, 8:00. Masaaki Shirakawa Governor of the BOJ will speak in two occasions. His words may influence the market.
5. Tokyo Core CPI: Friday, 0:30. Tokyo Core consumer prices increased 0.2% in April on a yearly base in line with expectations following 0.3% decline in February. That was the first annual rise since March 2009.
6. Retail Sales: Friday, 0:50. Japanese retail sales plunged in March by 8.5% from 0.1% gain in the previous month. This was the biggest drop since 1998 caused by the earthquake, Tsunami and nuclear crises. Japan’s economy is predicted to shrink in the current quarter after the earthquake and tsunami but will expand again in July-September with reconstruction projects.

*All times are GMT

USD/JPY Technical Analysis:

Dollar/yen began the week with a rise and it crossed the 81.33 line (discussed last week). After making an attempt to break the 82 line, it failed and closed at 81.64.

Technical levels from top to bottom:

85.50 is the top line – being the highest level in 2011 after the big intervention. It was reached after the stubborn line of 84.50 was broken. 84.50 capped the pair at the end of 2010.

84 was a lower peak before the March 11 catastrophe and minor resistance now. 83.40 is another weak line after capping the pair just before the disaster and also working as support a few months earlier.

82.87 was the trough before the BOJ intervention in September 2010 and also played an important role in recent weeks as the peak of a recovery attempt. 82 is now a minor line, after being shattered too many times in recent weeks, but it’s still of importance after working in both directions. It’s the first line of resistance.

81,33 proved to be a distinctive line separating ranges – it was a double top two weeks ago and serves as support. Strong support is at the 2010 low of 80.40, which was encountered now and although being slightly weaker, will still slow any fall.

79.75 is the historic low of 1995 and played a critical role when the pair collapsed in March. The current false break shows that it’s weaker, but shouldn’t be underestimated. 79.16 is minor resistance as well, followed by 78.27 – both were significant before the big intervention.

I remain bullish on USD/JPY.

We just got fresh evidence about the weak economy in Japan. There’s more room for gains.

Further reading

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the  USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the  Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the  British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the  AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the  NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the  Canadian dollar.