USD/JPY: Trading the US Conference Board Consumer Index March

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 households regarding their opinion of the economy, and its release  often has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides  important readings about consumer confidence and spending. The index’s direction and rate of change are carefully scrutinized by analysts and traders looking for an indication of which direction the economy is headed. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

The indicator was up sharply in February, climbing t0 70.8, well above the market forecast of 63.1. This reading was the highest in over four years, indicating that consumers are indeed feeling  more buoyant  about the economy. The forecast for  March  calls for little change, with a  prediction of 70.5.

Sentiments and levels

Traders should be cautious, as the end of the Japanese fiscal year could make USD/JPY unpredictable. In the short  term, the  problems in China  and Europe  could boost the yen, seen as a safe haven.  In the longer run, the pair has more room to rise, especially with Japan’s trade balance deficits, and the improving US economy.  So, the overall sentiment is neutral on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 84.50, 84, 83.20, 82.87, 82, and 81.60.

5 Scenarios    

1. Within expectations: 70.0 to 80.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2. Above expectations: 80.1 to 85.0: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 85.1: Another sharp increase in consumer confidence could propel the pair above two or more resistance levels.
4. Below expectations: 65.0 to 69.9: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.
5. Well below expectations: Below 65.0:   An unexpected weak reading would likely  push the pair  below two or more support levels.

For more on USD/JPY, see the USD/JPY forecast.