USD/JPY: Trading the US jobless claims Nov 2012

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US Unemployment Claims, a key indicator, is released weekly. It measures the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the dollar. 

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the publication of employment data is highly anticipated by the markets, and an unexpected reading could affect the direction of USD/JPY.

The previous release of 439 thousand newly unemployed persons shocked the markets, which had predicted a much lower level of 372K. The forecast for this week stands at 423K. If the release again exceeds the estimate, it could be an indication that the US economy is in trouble, and market sentiment could turn negative.

Sentiments and levels

There were always solid reasons for USD/JPY to rise,  and this is beginning to materialize now. The pair did take its time in some consolidation, and can now make the next move higher, building on a dovish BOJ decision. In the US, data is distorted due to Hurricane Sandy, and as long as no big headlines come out of Capitol Hill regarding the cliff, the focus will remain on the yen. So, the sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 83.34, 82.87, 81.80, 80.60, 80 and  79.70.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 411K to 435K: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
  2. Above expectations: 398K to 410K: An unexpected lower reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Below 398K: Strong employment numbers would be bullish for the dollar. Two or more lines of resistance might be broken on such an outcome.
  4. Below expectations: 435K to 447K: A poor reading could push USD/JPY lower, and one support level could be broken.
  5. Well below expectations: Above 447K. In this scenario, the pair could break below two or more support levels.

For more on the yen, see the USD/JPY forecast.

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About Author

Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.

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