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Dax is trading lower or sideways I should say since 2018, and at the moment it is in strong negative correlation with SP500 if we consider that US stocks are at ATH. But this divergence has been the case several times through the past few years so this is not any real big issue yet, but when global stocks do not agree or move the same it may be an evidence that market is maybe approaching a top that can be seen in years ahead.

However, before I may consider a top I have to see a completed pattern. But when looking at the trend from 8700 area I do not see five waves up yet, so it makes me think that reversal down from the January of this year is wave IV. This is a pause within an ongoing trend, so I assume that the fifth wave is still coming. The only question is if this new leg up will come from a triangle or after a deep A-B-C pullback in wave IV? In either case, I think it’s worth to keep an eye for evidence of a bullish continuation, after A-B-C-D-E sub waves if 11700 holds, or from 11280 if the mentioned swing is broken. Time is needed in both cases as corrective set-back is not done yet, but I remain bullish for 14000-15000 while the market is above the lowest trendline of an 8-year old channel.

Trade well,

German DAX, Weekly

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