Economists at Goldman Sachs are forecasting a partial V-shaped recovery in the US economy, which would include a reversal of more than half the 2020 economic contraction by September, but no full recovery in GDP to pre-coronavirus levels until mid-2021, according to MarketWatch. The forecast, however, is based on the assumption that there is premature fiscal tightening or resurgence in the number of coronavirus cases.
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The rise in the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index suggests that the economy was already rebounding quickly in sequential terms in June.
A “multi-month decline in the PMIs to 45 or below” would be a warning sign of stalling momentum, they add, while a sustained period of PMIs of 55 or more would signal a true “V-shaped” recovery.
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